UK weather: Record-breaking rainfall last month - what is the forecast for October?

If you thought that last month was wetter than usual in large parts of the UK, then you'd be right.

According to provisional figures from the Met Office, 10 counties in England experienced their wettest September on record.

They were Bedfordshire, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Gloucestershire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Oxfordshire, Rutland, Warwickshire and Wiltshire.

And seven of them had more than three times their average September rainfall - they were Bedfordshire (182.7mm), Berkshire (172.1mm), Buckinghamshire (176mm), Gloucestershire (212.2mm), Northamptonshire (171.3mm), Oxfordshire (185.2mm) and Wiltshire (196.5mm).

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For Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire, September 2024 was the wettest month the counties have experienced, in a series dating back to 1836.

Overall, England had nearly twice its September average rainfall - with 95% more than would normally be seen in that month.

Wales had 39% more rain than average for September.

In contrast, the bulk of Scotland and Northern Ireland recorded below-average rainfall for September.

What about October?

Many people will be wondering if October will follow suit, and if you live in England or Wales you'll probably be hoping for something much drier.

High pressure will bring some respite in the weather over the next few days, once today's rain over central and eastern England clears away.

Temperatures will be around average by day, but expect some chilly nights under clear skies.

It won't stay dry for long, with a cyclonic pattern returning for the weekend, with spells of wind and rain expected.

Unsettled conditions look set to continue next week, with showers or longer spells of rain.

Some disruptive rain is possible at times, with computer models suggesting deep areas of low pressure could move in, bringing strong winds at times too.

Their track may well be shifted further south than usual too, which means once again southern parts of the UK look more at risk of heavy rain and strong winds.

Remnants of tropical storm Kirk could be a factor

For example, some model forecasts predict the remnants of tropical storm Kirk, currently strengthening in the Atlantic, will be close to southwest England by the end of next week.

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Looking further ahead, the chance of something more blocked and settled increases for the second half of October. That would leave mostly dry conditions, perhaps warmer too, but confidence remains very low on this scenario.

September's outlook was similar and never happened, so there's still a chance it could turn out wet and windy.

Long-range forecasts in autumn can be especially tricky due to influences across the Atlantic.

We may have passed the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but activity there seems to be picking up compared to recently, which will have an influence in the confidence of the UK forecast.

(c) Sky News 2024: UK weather: Record-breaking rainfall last month - what is the forecast for October?