Even if Tulip Siddiq resigns, the damage may already be done to Sir Keir Starmer

There comes a point in the arc of most political scandals after which a resignation risks prompting more questions than it answers.

The danger for Tulip Siddiq - and by extension Sir Keir Starmer - is that threshold may about to be passed, if it hasn't been already.

In other words, if she goes now, plenty will wonder why it didn't happen sooner and why Downing Street allowed the story to gather pace and inflict further damage before acting.

The answer to this is partly because nothing has emerged so far that's such an explicit rule break that it would trigger an automatic sacking or resignation.

That means the affair still resides - just about - in the box marked "looks bad" rather than the more sinister one marked "is bad".

The standards adviser has been asked to "establish the facts" - a classic political technique to try and smother a story by announcing an inquiry.

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Cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Sky News the outcome of that exercise "will be stuck to", meaning the junior Treasury minister will be relieved of her responsibilities if a breach of the government's code of conduct is identified.

But some within Labour are contrasting this case with the rapid resignation of Louise Haigh as transport secretary after Sky News revealed she had pleaded guilty to an offence in court shortly before becoming an MP.

They suggest the key difference is that Ms Haigh was relatively left-wing and at odds with some in Downing Street, while Ms Siddiq is a constituency neighbour and ally of the prime minister.

"Keir Starmer has been consistently ruthless against people perceived to be more on the left of the party and very lenient with people perceived to be more on the right of the party," said former Jeremy Corbyn adviser Andrew Fisher.

A counter to this is that Ms Siddiq is not a cabinet minister.

That said, she does oversee efforts to combat financial crime, money laundering and corruption - three activities she is now finding herself linked to, albeit in a different country.

The fact she pulled out from the chancellor's trip to China this weekend also opens an easy attack line that the story is already stopping her from doing her job.

So where does this go now?

There is a chance that something may emerge that forces an immediate departure.

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Engaging the standards adviser may also backfire if a technical breach potentially relating to declarations or conflicts of interest is found.

But a third option is potentially most damaging for the government - that Ms Siddiq becomes politically paralysed by the volume of stories surfacing and is forced to step down simply to stem the flow.

(c) Sky News 2025: Even if Tulip Siddiq resigns, the damage may already be done to Sir Keir Starmer